Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Failure of our system

Let's think about these few events that have happened recently:-
  1. The crash of subprime mortgage markets which resulted to the collapse of 2 top investment banks with others struggling to survive
  2. The dependency of crude oil and sharp spike in oil prices beyond expectation

First point, simple math..you give mortgage debts to the unprivileged funded by securities with a promise of extremely high yields in return for 'manageable risks'. Nothing to be scared about, these securities have been rated by credible rating agencies, insured by top insurers and advised by top market players. Any simple man can say something is wrong with this structure..but look now what had happened from this failure..global markets have been punished, bank with history of nearly 200 years had filed for bankcruptcy..thousands of high flying bankers are left unemployed..just count the math of next dominos effect.

Oil price, trigger point - the recession of US economy..simple analysis could've been made easily..crude oil price is traded with USD as a denominator..sharp turn in a value of USD has an adverse impact to oil price..next thing you know oil price soared up to the sky..China and India were blamed for future increase in consumption..but one may ask? why now? and why so sudden? shouldn't this one particular comodity that is so crucial to our daily lives be hedged against any single variable? the implication? global inflations. Is the current price reflects the real value of oil price? get the OPEC members to give you the answer.

Both events have one similarity..both were bubbles which were expected to blow but no one dared to disagree.

Does this indicate the failure of human macro economics management? should someone be blamed for all of this? Does 'check and balance' system really work in our global economic system? It's time the global risk management to revisit this system..what can we expect from our our top economic leaders out of this?

yes, another bubble that's on the way to burst...

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